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 Early box office predictions

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owenpratt
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PostSubject: Early box office predictions   Fri Jun 10, 2016 8:41 am

How much Jurassic World 2 will gross?

My very early predictions are:

Dom: $400M
Overseas: $900M
Total Worldwide: $1.3B

I guess the budget will be like a solid $200M (without including marketing costs)
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PostSubject: Re: Early box office predictions   Fri Jun 10, 2016 8:45 am

I doubt it'll gross 1B again.

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PostSubject: Re: Early box office predictions   Fri Jun 10, 2016 10:18 am

@Dead2009 wrote:
I doubt it'll gross 1B again.

If it gets positive reviews, I doubt it will make less than $900M worldwide
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PostSubject: Re: Early box office predictions   Fri Jun 10, 2016 5:36 pm

@Dead2009 wrote:
I doubt it'll gross 1B again.

Agreed. IF it does, and it is possible, I think we'll have those outside the domestic audience to thank for that. I don't see it pulling in Jurassic World numbers, that's for sure. Jurassic World had time, nostalgia, and curiosity from the public on its side. Now that people have seen what the newest entry after fourteen years had to offer, and with some of them feeling disappointed and unimpressed, I don't expect the turnout to be as major.

Very positive reviews will obviously do more good than harm, so fingers crossed for that, and the movie, regardless of reception, will definitely pull in enough earnings to warrant a sixth film.

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PostSubject: Re: Early box office predictions   Fri Jun 10, 2016 6:00 pm

Guessing about 1.1 billion or so. I seriously doubt it makes less than a billion, unless the reviews are absolutely horrid.

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PostSubject: Re: Early box office predictions   Fri Jun 10, 2016 7:15 pm

I think $1-1.3B at this stage.
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PostSubject: Re: Early box office predictions   Sat Jun 11, 2016 5:24 am

We have to consider that:

- Universal now knows that the Jurassic franchise is huge, so it will probably use more budget for both production and marketing
- Bayona is an appreciated director and enough talented to make us think that JW2 will be well received by critics
- If the story will be huge-scaled and talk about dinos on the mainland, it could turn out to be a big big event to watch in theaters
- China's market is growing A LOT in the last years. In 2018 it will be as big as US market, if not bigger. China loved JW, and I think JW2 will bring from China even more money than JW
- Chris Pratt's fame is now even bigger than it was after GotG. Even Bryce Dallas Howard's fame has grown a bit after JW. Also, if Bayona brings some well-known actors in his film, the success will be higher

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PostSubject: Re: Early box office predictions   Sat Jun 11, 2016 9:30 am

Realistically, $1B is pretty much a given. I don't wanna overestimate, so I'd say $450M domestic and $950M overseas, so $1.4B total.
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PostSubject: Re: Early box office predictions   Sat Jun 11, 2016 9:34 am

Given that it is up against some heavy competition that year, and if it is a bigger improvement on Jurassic World, I would say around $1 Billion

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PostSubject: Re: Early box office predictions   Sat Jun 11, 2016 2:38 pm

Not as much as last time, that's for sure. Razz

I remember my initial estimate for JW being $750-800 million and it was shattered in two weeks.

The ~$1B mark for JW2 seems reasonable IMO.

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PostSubject: Re: Early box office predictions   Sat Jun 11, 2016 6:41 pm

It won't beat JW1, but that's kinda expected.

These are hard numbers to beat:


Still, the $1B mark is certainly believable. Universal now knows that JP is their most profitable franchise, so they're probably gonna run a marketing campaign more like Disney's (for Star Wars and Avengers movies).

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PostSubject: Re: Early box office predictions   Sun Jun 12, 2016 1:08 am

I'm going to assume it will do well, but not as well as Jurassic World did.

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PostSubject: Re: Early box office predictions   Sun Jun 12, 2016 6:25 pm

Domestic opening weekend: 170-190 million

Final domestic total: 400-450 million

Final worldwide total: 1.3-1.45 billion.

I suspect it will play like the regular "big sequel does less domestically but explodes overseas".

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PostSubject: Re: Early box office predictions   Mon Jun 13, 2016 11:54 am

It'll probably pass one billion. I would say 1.1-1.2 billion.


It's too big not to reach a billion and not quite big enough to reach the first Jurassic World.

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PostSubject: Re: Early box office predictions   Mon Jun 13, 2016 12:59 pm

You know, I won't even attempt to predict it. I was completely proven wrong about how popular Jurassic World was going to be. I remember laughing at everyone guessing anything higher than 800 million and then it actually got 1 billion. Of course, that was before I realized what kind of marketing campaign they had, but still. They've got this series as popular as superhero movies, so I really can't tell how well Jurassic World 2 will do.

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PostSubject: Re: Early box office predictions   Mon Jun 13, 2016 11:09 pm

If positive reviews - 1B
If negative reviews - 700-800M

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PostSubject: Re: Early box office predictions   Tue Jun 14, 2016 1:08 am

It won't gross as much as the first one because JW was a return to a much-loved franchise that has been dormant for 13 years so not as many people will be busting to watch JW 2. I have faith in Bayona because he directs great movies. If JW 2 gets good reviews, it has a chance of beating JW, which got mixed reviews.
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